We Forecast .Markets Decide ..

I am closing my Short $UsdCad @1.1116 for a decent profit . Will look to sell into rallies . I bought $EurUsd 1.3504 for a target of 50 pips

I am taking a short on $UsdCad @1.1212 for atleast 50 pips target I am also selling my short $NzdUsd @.8079 in profit ..looking to sell again at .8200

Nifty expected to open gap down again on weak global cues [Nifty was weak on pre -open during this post ] . Asian stocks already in red because of last night drop in US stocks . Support comes at 6000 as mentioned in my previous post and a break below it can go down till 5800 . I am bearish on the Nifty in the short term and will resume buying only after May -June 2014 . ICICI , Crompton,GAIL,TCI and Century Textile posted good results , while Titan and IOB posted dip in profits from last quarter. I am not taking any positions today but will look to trade on Friday as Fed Euphoria settles . Fed continues to cut down on stimulus as US economy improves . It found good support from all its members as they all agreed on the policy . I will look to sell on any rallies on S&P . China Manufacturing low than expected which added fuel to the fire with index in red .  Coming up on currencies dollar was slightly weak after the release . There is no clear pattern emerging on currenci...

Nifty closed around the same levels after a gap down yesterday at 6126 . I have not taken any trades but will wait for a day or two after todays Fed policy . I am still bearish on the Nifty till 6000 levels . Markets were surprised on  RBI rate hike but did not see any quick reaction after the news . RBI intention is very clear on this announcement as he is taking all efforts to bring down inflation . Stocks that were in limelight were Ipca Labs , Jyothy, Vimta and Maruti with inline results .Asian stocks rose after few consecutive drops on profit booking . US consumer confidence was highest in Jan than last month , everyone is now eying on Fed decision on its monthly program to reduce stimulus . It depends on how and fast it take decisions based on economic data coming out of US .I will be looking to short S&P again on rallies at 1837 . My position on currencies not that strong but I am quite optimistic on he dollar in short term . Will keep you posted on any good ...

Nifty had a gap down opening as mentioned in my last post . I also closed by Sell calls on Infosys and Infy and will now see to sell at rallies in the next 2-3 days . Nifty support at 6000 if broken will go to 5800 levels . All eyes on RBI policy as I don't expect any change in monetary policy today , Mr. Rajan has a breather this time of keeping rates same as inflation has cooled down and will inch slower in coming months . Stocks in news were HUL , Allahbad Bank and Coromondel where results were as per expectations . Stocks to watch today will be NTPC , Sesa ,Shalimar paints , Titagurh , Jindal Steel and Maruti as they will post today .Asian stocks were in red in the open on growth concerns of China and Fed Taper. S&P declined to a new low last night on news that emerging markets will be impacted in near term . Major announcement today as Fed concludes  2 day meeting on the decision to continue stimulus gradually .Earnings report are better than last quarter which shows gr...

I have closed my Sell call Sun Pharma 640 Jan series @.65 in profit I have closed my Sell Call Infosys 3800 Jan Series @13 in profit

I am closing my short S&P @1784 . I will also close my sell calls for Sun Pharma and Infy on open

Finally as what I had expected happened , emerging stocks fell followed by S&P and Europe. I was expecting this fall for quite some time but bulls refused to move away . Nifty closed below 6300 and I see that it may fall till 6000 mark . I expect Nifty in the same range or max 5800 till May 2014 after which a bull trend will resume . My Infy and Sun Pharma sell calls still in the money . I may now go for another Sell shot on the Nifty on opening Monday morning . I think it will be a gap down opening for the Nifty hence will wait before I execute my trade . Private bank coming up with good earnings , same as with Pharma sector as well , UCO Bank , Glenmark , Karnataka Bank and Novartis posted good results as per expectations . S&P had a biggest drop than last 6 months as it closed to 1781 . My short trade in S&P[from 1807] is in the money and will look to close on Monday opening . It will be interesting next week as FED meets on Jan 28-29 to reduce stimulus in a phased...

Nifty closed in positive , slightly above 6300 . I have come out of my sell nifty future as markets are  undecided on the next move . I am still -negative on Nifty , since our trade was not going anywhere I finally decided to call it off . Tata Coffee, Unilever and Colgate posted good results while there was drop in earnings from Ashok Leyland , Kotak Bank and Thermax . I have observed that Banks are not reporting good results and I see a rise in NPA overall . NSE has now launched interest derivatives which is a new product and can be used as a hedging tool . Investors who think that rates will fall going forward can now sell futures and make money , it can also be used as an hedge for your home loan . I will be explaining it in my next post . I am in the money with Infosys and Sun Pharma Sell calls . S&P was flat yesterday but mostly on the lower side . Markets are eagerly waiting for BOJ monetary policy which will decide the fate of the Yen . German inve...

I am closing my sell Nifty Future in loss and taking a new position on sell Put 6200 Jan series @17

Nifty still inside the range , 6000 - 6300 levels , I now see a some bullishness and hence will close my Sell future Nifty position tomorrow morning . I have taken a sell call on Infosys as I see some pressure around 3800 levels . Asian Paints and Ultratech Cements fell with results below estimates while Emami , TTK and PTC were the performers today on earnings. Nothing much impressive about Indian markets for the last week  hence trading is difficult and one may sell calls and puts with a range from 6000-6500 levels for the current month . China growth slowed from last quarter as investment , industrial activity and exports weakened the most from last quarter . Asian stocks were up this morning as traders wait for BOJ interest rate decision by tomorrow . NZ inflation increased and they may look to rise rates again . My long $UsdChf is in the money and I see some more upside in the next few days  . S&P was flat yesterday on thin trade due to US holiday , I expe...

I am opening a new position  Sell Call on Infosys 3800 @17.5

Nifty ended weak below 6300 as expected . I am still holding short Nifty and will continue to hold unless it shows a strong upside move which is unlikely . I am bearish in short term till June 2014 and will buy unless general elections play out , till then it will trade within a range . Inline results from bigwigs like TCS, Reliance , Wipro , Axis Bank , Bajaj Auto and HDFC Bank . Inflation cooled from last month and RBI will be happy as they may not have to hike rates this policy meeting . I am expecting Nifty and Bank Nifty to be weak as I now see a strong co relation between S&P and emerging market indices . Looking to sell Infosys as it is facing some resistance around 3700 levels . Please check my blog for flash updates . Manufacturing was strongest since last 3 years according to FED report . S&P fell from record high on slow earnings from finance sector . Senate voted in favor to finance the US government spending until Sep 14 thus reducing chances of fiscal slow...

Nifty was bullish yesterday and closed almost flat . I am still holding my long Nifty future even though I am in negative . In case there is a positive close tomorrow I will close my long position or will try to cover up by selling Puts near 6100 levels . I will decide and keep you posted during market hours . My sell Call Sun Pharma is in profit and will wait till expiry . Good numbers from TCS , HCL Tech , Axis Bank and DB Corp . IT sector will be in focus in 2014 with US / Euro zone reviving they surely will get a benefit from it . Bank stocks will be encouraging but I also see their NPA rising from last 2-3 quarters hence need to review again in next quarter . See lot of action on earnings report next few days . My view still remains bearish/ sideways till June 2014 . US stocks were back to normal after reaching all time high yesterday , I don't think there will be buyers at that level to take it any further . Finance group shares were down after not so encouraging numbers ...

Nifty was weak on opening but closed lower marginally ,  I was expecting a strong weak close but it didn't happen as day progressed . I am still holding my sell Nifty future short with stop loss of  6300 . Coal India declared a special dividend after market hours , CMC was weak after flat quarter numbers . Earnings report will slowly pick up from now with some major companies declaring results . Overall economy is still not at all in good shape nor showing any signs of improvement , first positive signs we see now is inflation starting to slow down on retail level . Markets remain to be high even on such conditions and its a concern will it be able to sustain or go any further . US Retail sales were positive due to holiday season last month . We are getting lot of encouraging data from the US and it will be the first nation to be completely out of recession in 2014 . Sales increased in almost all the sectors and we may see good earnings this season . I am long dollar on CHF ...

Nifty closed up by 100 points near 6300 . A close above 6300 on daily basis will be positive and will take to 6500 levels . I think it may not happen as it may correct to 6000 levels and then decide .Global cues remain weak and hence there may be downward momentum in the Nifty today . I am still holding my Nifty Future short even though I was tempted to close as it surged to 6300 levels yesterday .Inflation data was quite positive with CPI as well as WPI inflation fell the most than last quarter . There is some relief to Mr. RBI before it takes a policy decision .Q3 numbers will slowly start trickling down on Dallal Street as we will come to know the health of overall industrial scenario. US stocks fell as analysts expected that earnings will not be the trigger factor to take stocks to new high . Asian stocks are also weak today morning taking cues from US /Eurozone markets . Coming up today will be Eurozone Inflation numbers , Pound consumer index and US Retail sales data . Interes...

Nifty was flat rather range bound. It opened strong and continued till 6240 until it found resistance and came down to close near open . Infosys results started the Q3 earnings season with some good growth , it has raised  forecast for year 2014 on US and Europe revival . Other news which came up was that RBI has eased restrictions on Gold lending because of which some NBFC stocks rose . There was a big disappointment in industrial output as it dropped due to decline in consumption activity .Coming up next week is Inflation numbers and earnings report from Bajaj Auto , TCS , HDFC , Reliance , Wipro and Axis Bank . I am still holding short Nifty Future even though it came dangerously close to my stop loss . S&P closed on a high note in spite of bad employment numbers ,  Employers hired fewest workers in December lowest in 3 years which now remains a challenge to Fed gradual tapering . There was also a decline in average workweek , most of the analysts thou...