We Forecast .Markets Decide ..

Sorry for not blogging for quite long . As per my last post I had taken a Sell Nifty Call at strike 7500 which ended in profit [Nifty closed at 7512 on expiry]. Nifty climbed around 7600 levels and there is a strong support around 7670 levels . Expect volatility to pick up from this week onwards due to Finance Budget due on July 11 , everyone is expecting a change in reforms and if they meet we may see Nifty to a new level , it can also turn lower in case it disappoints . Overall macro indicators still don't point to a buy , we should also see how monsoon behaves in the near term . Is this a pre -budget rally , I don't want to comment but investors looking for a long term may buy at current levels . I expect the markets to fall for the last time somewhere in July and August and then be bullish in 2015 . No change in my Sell Nifty 7700 levels for July , keep watching my posts in case that level is threatened . US equities were back on track this week , S&P gained today o

Nifty is range bound and will fluctuate between 7500 - 7700 . Breakout on either side will take it to the next level . Interim Budget for the new government is likely on July 11 and this will be the next big event for markets to decide . Overall business confidence remains highest as they think new policies will be business friendly for overall growth . Nifty likely to open positive todays taking cues from global markets with Asia and S&P are in green yesterday . No change in my Sell Nifty Call positions . Asian markets in positive on Fed comments yesterday  , US is on a recovery path and will raise interest rates until next year , reducing stimulus as expected and will gradually will be to Zero by 2015 . I think Fed will wait for another quarter to take some strong decisions on inflation and interest rates . S&P climbed to record high and is now in overbought zone , I am unhappy on the equities and now demands a healthy correction for a leap forwards . Dollar was weak after

Nifty traded flat around 7500 levels after a fall last week . I am looking to buy around 7400 levels for the Nifty . Inflation numbers not so impressive and went up to 5 month high and may increase further in case of weak monsoons , I don't understand here with monsoon just around we need to see another 2 months to see the actual data on monsoons , but as they always say Markets are always right . Global stocks too under pressure that's the reason I see a weak nifty for this month . Asia stocks weak on opening due to Iraq concerns . Overall stocks are weak  globally until these tensions eases . I have sold 2 lots of Nifty for July series at strike 7700 as I am bearish on equities for June and July . S&P recovered to 1940 but looking bearish in the medium term . Markets will be awaiting Fed policy today tomorrow and likely to hint on rising rates as US economy picks up in 2014 . RBA has kept rates unchanged with Aussie is weakest today morning and expecting to drop at .9

I am selling 2 lots of Nifty Calls strike 7700 @139..for July series My other position remains unchanged

Nifty fell last week near 7500 levels after hitting all time high at 7700 . We have not seen full time growth yet and markets are already to new peak , imagine the Sensex and Nifty values when growth reaches its peak. As explained in my previous posts , investors can now be long Nifty for a year I am just anticipating another fall around 7400 levels and that will be the right time to buy . I will be also closing my Sell call position which was under pressure last week . I will look to sell puts going forward as I see momentum picking up in other world economies even though it has not been started yet in India .Traders will be looking for Inflation and manufacturing data this week ,also markets will now see how the new government brings up its maiden budget for this year . S&P was down to around 1930 levels as geo political tensions picked up in Iraq , oil climbed to a new high with commodities . US economy has picked up in 2014 with employment numbers above average than last year

Nifty was back in action and was near 7400 mark , first time after General election results were announced . India GDP not growing as expected to be , yesterdays RBI policy also reflected the same with no signs of interest rates coming down , inflation still a concern and manufacturing not so impressive as of now . In spite of all this Nifty is at record high which is quite surprising to me , I just attended a meeting on Indian economy few days back and one of the question raised was what will be Nifty when we come back on growth path . Nice to see so many young investors ready to take  risks do business in our economy . My sell Nifty 7500 call coming under pressure but I will still stick to y position till end of expiry . I also mentioned in my previous posts that I will be bullish after June , hence waiting for some nice correction before building up positions . S&P rallied to new high on strong services sector growth but ADP figures as compared to last few months is progress