We Forecast .Markets Decide ..

My Sell Nifty Call for last month [Strike 6900 April ]  closed in profit I am taking another Sell call for May Strike 7300 @77.5 as I am not bullish on the Nifty even though elections results may increase volatility  

Nifty slowly going towards 6900 , but there will be a strong resistance around 6875 . Global cues being positive there will be a tough fight between bulls and bears . Good numbers by HDFC Bank , Zensar and Tata Elxi ..coming up today will be Cairn India , YES Bank and Ultratech Cement . We will see more of these earning and will update you on overall analysis . We will see some volatility due to expiry today , NSE will be closed tomorrow due to election day .  I will look to sell Nifty 7100 Call for May series before end of day today and hope my sell call for 6900 series for April closes in profit . Asian stocks advance on strong global cues , China PMI slowest than last quarter but better than last month , question that will China will be able to meet GDP guidance for this year . Aussie dropped on the news that inflation rose unexpectedly , S&P rose on better earnings from wall street and my position is negative [short from 1870].Important events today will be Euro Zone PMI , BO

Nifty crossed 6800 levels and may face a resistance around 6850-6875 levels . There was buying all around and hence we have reached at those levels . Will we sustain at this level or may be a break is required to move up further . There is no change in my Nifty positions but will rather wait till expiry . Good numbers by RIL , LIC housing finance and Crisil , we will see lot of coming up this week . All eyes are on election results and hence a caution to investors please do not think only in political point of view but also look at economy and other macro indicators . Asian markets flat , S&P rises in straight sessions as analysts predict that corporate will indicate better profit guidance for the next year . Volumes are thin since last 2-3 sessions due to holiday and expected to pick up this week . Lot of events this week and we may see some volatility on the currency side as well . I am taking a short trade on S&P at 1870 levels and lets see how it goes through next week .

Nifty closed around 5850 levels , meeting lot of resistance around 5800 levels . I feel it may fall before election results and then would be the start of the bull run . Inflation rose again and manufacturing not showing signs of recovery , hence very skeptical in the short term . IT majors have declared their numbers but not so confident for the next financial year . Coming up next week on earnings is Reliance , major banks like HDFC , ICICI  and Axis Bank . No change in  Nifty Sell call of 6900 . S&P gained near 1870 mark and will be looking to sell again around those levels . On a Global Level China slowing as per data . US overall manufacturing picking up this quarter . Euro Manufacturing probably will recover than last quarter while German business confidence may be lower ..all coming up next week . Also need to look on inflation in Australian and probable rate hike for the Kiwi .No change in my FX positions and will be looking to sell SPX on Tuesday morning . Statistics N

India earnings kicked with Infy numbers , they posted better margins this quarter but sales have dropped and lower guidance in sales and profit for the next financial year . Nifty drops to 6700 mark but traders anticipate upward move towards 7000 . Inflation rose after 3 months putting Mr. Rajan in a dilemma on increasing rates . I do not see any signs of improvement in the economy since last 6 months with only relief from the inflation point . No change in my sell Nifty calls .I will be looking to sell puts at 6500 mark today and will keep you posted. China growth slows down as GDP increased marginally since last quarter , this may cause a concern and impact currencies like Aussie and kiwi . US retails sales advanced while pound was stronger on better consumer confidence data . Markets to be in thin volume until Monday due to holidays this week , I would suggest not to take any positions by end of day . S&P recovering back to 1870 levels and will be looking again to sell at thes

Nifty around 6800 mark ...will it march ahead by May 16 [polls outcome].  Feb Industrial data prints low which is lowest for the last 9 months hence slow manufacturing data since last 3 quarters which is not an healthy sign for India .Its every interesting month now as market will not at all price in earnings , economic data but will  react on opinion polls and strategy reports . Infosys will declare its results on Tuesday  for the quarter and revenue growth guidance for the next financial year . Reports suggest that Nifty may cross 7000 mark until May 16th as market participants think India will vote for majority . I don't want to comment here and will rather wait till June to be bullish . Coming up this week Inflation data and Jan-Mar earnings from Infy , Wipro , Reliance , TCS and Indusind Bank . Asia stocks flat on todays opening as concerns over high inflation grows . Mixed signals from china on growth as economists feel they are slowing down . S&P fell towards 1800 mark

Nifty was flat yesterday and hovered around 6800 mark . It will open in red today as stocks dropped globally . There was good turnout yesterday in India elections with major states went to polls yesterday . Nifty will take cues globally in the coming days until election results are out . I feel  what ever be the outcome India will grow in 2015-16 and I  am bullish after mid 2014 . No change in my sell Nifty call strategy . Asia markets were down on opening after china reporting fall in producer price index and accelerated inflation . S&P fell due to tech shares sell off and is almost 70 points down since last week . I will close my S&P short position next week or by end of day today for some profit . Dollar continued to be under pressure and important events today will be Euro consumer price index and US business confidence index later today . No change in my FX positions as all of them are in red and will hold for some more time . Strategy No change in long $UsdChf . No

Nifty hit a new high touching 6800 levels .. will it go higher ???  Is this a pre election rally or are fundamentals really strong for India . I am still not convinced on the up move and bullish only after elections play out . Macro indicators not at all supporting the current rally and traders only cashing in on election euphoria . My 6900 sell call coming under pressure but I will continue to hold unless breached . Big day today as India votes for power in the next few days ... PLEASE VOTE ...as you are the building blocks of the nation . Asia stocks flat on open as disappointing news coming from China . Exports fell and its now hinting that the road is not so great ahead and may be its slowing down . Dollar was weak after Fed minutes as the members expressed that the market has not taken their policy clearly . All my positions on the currency side are negative and I will rather wait for some more time as I see dollar will emerge as the winner in the long run . S&P rose after

Nifty was flat at 6700 , with one major news of Sun Pharma buying our Ranbaxy in all stock deal , hence becomes 5th largest drug maker globally . Elections kicked off this yesterday till next 6 weeks and will wait patiently for the outcome . Indian economy not really picking up with only one positive factor of inflation under control . I expect to see India going strong only after monsoons and when the new government announces reforms . Those who would like to invest in the long run can buy at current levels . I will prefer to sell Calls at higher strike price and puts at lower levels for the Nifty . Looking to sell Calls in Tata Steel at 440 strike price . Asia stocks down on opening with BOL reporting more trade surplus after a long time , Traders eagerly waiting for the monetary policy later today for any news to increase easing . I am long Yen in the short term and long in the medium to long term . I have taken another sell on the pound today @1.6615 with a target of 100 pips

Nifty dropped near 6700 after a good run up last week . I expect the Nifty to be in a range from 6400 to 6700 before polls results are out . Another factor to look at will be Monsoons this year . Inflation remains to be low and industrial data not so impressive till now . Earnings will start by next week and we will see how Corporate India has fared than last year . I don't see any surprises on the earnings nor on the economy front to be bullish now . Elections start next week and please do not forget to VOTE . Also do not get carried away by exit polls shown by various TV channels . Elections results are not the deciding factor for Markets to perform in near term . No change in my Nifty Positions . Asian stocks were down and traders will look to see monetary policy by BOJ on Tuesday . Will it continue its stimulus program  to lift Japanese economy .  US payrolls missed analysts expectations but i still feel the numbers were quite strong and hence will be buying dollar gradually

Nifty touched 6800 mark and retreated back to original levels . Todays open is weak and is very unlikely to surge again . I have taken a sell on Nifty at 6900 series for  this month . Stocks in the limelight is IDFC as RBI has given a banking license under certain conditions they need to fulfill as per  guidelines . Nothing much on India story as we all wait for the poll outcome . Long term traders may look to buy on correction for a period of 1-2 years horizon. Asian markets rose on china stimulus policies , decline in industrial activity is their major concern  over the past 2-3 months . Dollar was strong yesterday on the ADP report that payroll may show an increase in March . Retail sales increased in Aussie but the currency is still under pressure against the dollar . I am closing my $GbpUSd sell position in profit @1.6637 . All other positions remain unchanged .   Strategy No change in long $UsdChf . No change in short $NzdUsd . No change in short $EurUsd, No change in shor

Nifty closed around 6700 ....being there for 3rd session . RBI policy unchanged ...in case inflation remains low over a period of time then RBI may consider to cut down on rates to improve growth . I dont see any revival on the overall growth scenario in the near term and as posted will be looking to buy only after elections in June 2014 . Another interesting statement made was not penalizing customers for non maintenance of minimum balance . Indian manufacturing was down in march which is not a good sign and i see reforms not happening from the government to improve growth . I have sold nifty Call at higher levels and will wait till expiry . S&P futures pointing to positive before manufacturing data due today . UK manufacturing to a 8 month low , they grew at lowest pace since last 2 quarters . Traders will now look for policy meeting next week . Dollar to gains in case ISM prints  positive than last month . I have taken a sell on Pound and will hold until target is reached . Ch