We Forecast .Markets Decide ..

I am selling Nifty Put and Nifty Call for December series , and I think it will be within 5700 and 6300 range .

Stocks rose in Asian and Europe . Indexes closed in Green , Nifty was up more than a percent and staged a smart recovery . As mentioned in my last post i was about to take sell call on Nifty for the current series , but seeing a gap open today morning i am refraining from taking a decision on Short Nifty . I may take a position tommorrow with stop loss of 6250 . If the market races to 6250 i will then not be on the short side . Oil and Gold declined on news as Iran signs a nuclear deal  with US as they will curb in its nuclear programme . Macro Economic indicators still not improving and inflation still not under control i am still surprised with markets not consolidating . Banking Stocks and Capital Goods index were the biggest gainers followed by Auto and FMCG . Many of them are waiting for RINL IPO , which is the second largest state owned steel maker after SAIL . I was quite nervous on my short $EurUsd position in the afternoon as it was nearing stop loss . Prices has turned down

Equities continue to be bullish as we come towards end 2013. There was 25%-30% rise in all equities across the world since start of 2013 . What will happen now and going forward 2014 . As we enter December I forecast traders will now be booking profits in equities as profits are not real unless it is realized . Emerging markets are already showing some signs of weakness and will correct in short term . Gold continued to fall this week as many thought that Fed will start tapering shortly and may not be good year for Gold in 2014 . Nifty was near the support level of 6000 and signaling weak close till expiry . There is a possibility that it may close below 6000 by end of this week . I am likely to sell a call for 6000 tomorrow early morning on Open . Nifty will take cues from Q2 GDP data and rollovers on F&O for December to decide direction , also on Fed statements that tapering will be discussed in next round of Fed meeting in December . I expect the Nifty to drift towards 5700

I am closing my long $EurUsd long position @1.3428 and switching it to sell

US markets consolidated after closing positive since last 4-5 sessions . We need to look a close below 1780 for a short trade strategy . Traders are now looking for Fed minutes tomorrow to decide on the decision to continue its $85 billion purchases [Stimulus ], analysts think that they may start reducing gradually from this month onwards . Another news suggested OECD has cut growth forecasts for emerging economies including India and Brazil .Earnings  were better than expected and I hope economic data improving in US . Nifty paused today after hitting 6200 mark and there is a possibility that it will wait for global cues before it takes the next direction. Earnings were not so great this time as per my analysis and I think companies overall are being pressured on margins . Other factors like elections , monetary policy will decide on the market course , I feel with Nifty can reach all time high as money still continues to pour in globally , economic indicators are not talking

US markets closed in green this week with S&P making a new high . Equities elsewhere also closed positive on Fed indicated that they will continue to support unless they see a robust recovery . We have got stopped out of S&P position with a loss . I will be looking to sell again for a close below 1777 . We are approaching end of 2013 and we will have lot of action near last days of the year . Since we have lost a good amount of money on our short S&P trade I have reduced my lost size to .08 lost from  .1 lot and maximum of 2 open positions . Nifty made a smart recovery on Thursday and looks like we have got a strong support at 6000 levels . We could see a new high on the Nifty going ahead but for me I just cannot digest the fact that markets continue to trend higher in spite of all the bad news going out there . Markets will take cues from RBI policy , election results and Fed tapering . Inflation continued to climb at 8 month high and showing no signs of taking a breat

I am closing half of my Buy $UsdJpy @99.917