We Forecast .Markets Decide ..

"Nifty had a free fall " - almost getting it to 7800 mark and then dropping suddenly below 7700 levels . As posted earlier I don't see much of buying at current levels , there may be euphoria on budget day but I expect some correction on equities globally . I am closing my long Nifty futures at 7650 and expect the Nifty to close below 7700 for July series . Coming up today Economic Survey which gives us current economic scenario and measures taken during the last year , and budget coming up tomorrow . Budget failed to impress the markets but some good measures that government will allow FDI participation to improve quality and growth for railways. Also earnings to start on Friday with Infy numbers and will be looking for performance in Q1 for corporates and the impact on Indian Markets . S&P fell to around 1960 levels followed by equities worldwide , I think Fed has got a hint that its time to raise rates or cut down on easing sharply with strong numbers on unempl

We are just 4 days for the budget from the new government , is it going to give reforms for the current financial year . It has already taken some bold moves by rising oil prices and passenger / freight fares last month . Expect Nifty to break barriers in case the budget is investor friendly or fall around support level if its the other way around . Equities at all time high globally and already in the overbought zone technically , I think Nifty may not surpass 7800 levels and will be looking to buy at lower levels . Other factors influencing the Nifty will be the Q1 earning this week and monsoon factor [overall still looking weak]. US stock were at all time high on strong employment numbers , analysts predict the earnings report to be flat starting this week . There is a chance that some companies in US will clock double digit growth for the first time in three years . I don't see an upside in equities as Fed needs to think a bit to raise rates and stop the free money flowing in

Nifty was at record high and closed around 7751 and I think it has already priced in the gains of the budget , I have already taken a protective stance on my positions by taking a 2 lots of Nifty futures 2 days back . Will be looking to square of my positions after the budget . Earning season start next week with Infosys announcing its Q1 results on July 11 . We also have the budget on July 10 and hence expecting lot of volatility next week . US employment figures jumped in June and the jobless rate is below 6.5 threshold of the Fed for the third time in a row . This indicates that economy is picking up as an whole , fiscal deficit also narrowed down due to jump in exports last month . Global equities jumped on the results and most of the stocks trade near all time high last week . Looks like equities are bit stretched and will be looking to sell towards end of this month . Dollar was strong across the board among major currencies except for Canadian Dollar and I am already long doll

Market hinting for a rally and hence to protect my Sell Calls , I am buying 2 Lots of Nifty Futures at 7709 for July Series ..

Sorry for not blogging for quite long . As per my last post I had taken a Sell Nifty Call at strike 7500 which ended in profit [Nifty closed at 7512 on expiry]. Nifty climbed around 7600 levels and there is a strong support around 7670 levels . Expect volatility to pick up from this week onwards due to Finance Budget due on July 11 , everyone is expecting a change in reforms and if they meet we may see Nifty to a new level , it can also turn lower in case it disappoints . Overall macro indicators still don't point to a buy , we should also see how monsoon behaves in the near term . Is this a pre -budget rally , I don't want to comment but investors looking for a long term may buy at current levels . I expect the markets to fall for the last time somewhere in July and August and then be bullish in 2015 . No change in my Sell Nifty 7700 levels for July , keep watching my posts in case that level is threatened . US equities were back on track this week , S&P gained today o

Nifty is range bound and will fluctuate between 7500 - 7700 . Breakout on either side will take it to the next level . Interim Budget for the new government is likely on July 11 and this will be the next big event for markets to decide . Overall business confidence remains highest as they think new policies will be business friendly for overall growth . Nifty likely to open positive todays taking cues from global markets with Asia and S&P are in green yesterday . No change in my Sell Nifty Call positions . Asian markets in positive on Fed comments yesterday  , US is on a recovery path and will raise interest rates until next year , reducing stimulus as expected and will gradually will be to Zero by 2015 . I think Fed will wait for another quarter to take some strong decisions on inflation and interest rates . S&P climbed to record high and is now in overbought zone , I am unhappy on the equities and now demands a healthy correction for a leap forwards . Dollar was weak after

Nifty traded flat around 7500 levels after a fall last week . I am looking to buy around 7400 levels for the Nifty . Inflation numbers not so impressive and went up to 5 month high and may increase further in case of weak monsoons , I don't understand here with monsoon just around we need to see another 2 months to see the actual data on monsoons , but as they always say Markets are always right . Global stocks too under pressure that's the reason I see a weak nifty for this month . Asia stocks weak on opening due to Iraq concerns . Overall stocks are weak  globally until these tensions eases . I have sold 2 lots of Nifty for July series at strike 7700 as I am bearish on equities for June and July . S&P recovered to 1940 but looking bearish in the medium term . Markets will be awaiting Fed policy today tomorrow and likely to hint on rising rates as US economy picks up in 2014 . RBA has kept rates unchanged with Aussie is weakest today morning and expecting to drop at .9