Outlook 2014 : India Inc: Sensex and Nifty :
It was a good year[2013] for the Nifty giving close to 25% , mainly due to FII inflows . Will it continue in 2014 ???. This year India will be focusing on 2 main events first political outcome by June and then economic measures taken post ballot outcome in the later part of the year . Overall I will be bullish on India but only after June 2014 and then in 2015 . First half of the year market will tend to be bearish or moving sideways . My targets for the lower end is 5500 and 7000 on the upper side for Nifty .
Politics - A major hindrance to Economic Growth
We see general elections in May 2014 bringing in new regime and new policies . Investors mostly are cautious and do not want to be a part of the growth story as economic policies not clear or may change in case the unexpected happens . In case of a hung parliament we may see a lot of instability as there will be no clear guidelines on economic policy .
For Growth to Improve - Inflation to be tackled , and industrial and agricultural activity should outperform
Last year was the worst as prices skyrocketed on wholesale and retail . Industrial activity declined , no major triggers on manufacturing and agriculture in 2013. Growth came to a standstill with high interest rates to cool down inflation . At one point we were tackling high prices and fiscal deficit on the other side .It was a very bad year on all major macro indicators and in-spite of this our market continued to be in positive the entire year . With Good monsoons and manufacturing picking up I see 2014 as positive and economy to stabilize and grow over next 2-3 years .
Global Cues : Will it impact
US economy gathering and steam and will be in full mode in this year . We should see stimulus slowly fade away in 2014-2015 . I expect some outflow of money towards US as it will be the first economy to come out of recession followed by Euro , Asia and then emerging economies . There will be a slight pressure on the rupee as dollar will be be stronger against all currencies . Euro zone also will slowly improve in later half of 2014 .
Sectors to Watch : Pharma , Infrastructure
I forecast Pharma to be in demand this year. Look for specific stocks like Sun Pharma , Cipla and Biocon to outperform . Also lookout for IT stocks which can fetch you good returns this year .
Wish you all the best . Happy Investing
Politics - A major hindrance to Economic Growth
We see general elections in May 2014 bringing in new regime and new policies . Investors mostly are cautious and do not want to be a part of the growth story as economic policies not clear or may change in case the unexpected happens . In case of a hung parliament we may see a lot of instability as there will be no clear guidelines on economic policy .
For Growth to Improve - Inflation to be tackled , and industrial and agricultural activity should outperform
Last year was the worst as prices skyrocketed on wholesale and retail . Industrial activity declined , no major triggers on manufacturing and agriculture in 2013. Growth came to a standstill with high interest rates to cool down inflation . At one point we were tackling high prices and fiscal deficit on the other side .It was a very bad year on all major macro indicators and in-spite of this our market continued to be in positive the entire year . With Good monsoons and manufacturing picking up I see 2014 as positive and economy to stabilize and grow over next 2-3 years .
Global Cues : Will it impact
US economy gathering and steam and will be in full mode in this year . We should see stimulus slowly fade away in 2014-2015 . I expect some outflow of money towards US as it will be the first economy to come out of recession followed by Euro , Asia and then emerging economies . There will be a slight pressure on the rupee as dollar will be be stronger against all currencies . Euro zone also will slowly improve in later half of 2014 .
Sectors to Watch : Pharma , Infrastructure
I forecast Pharma to be in demand this year. Look for specific stocks like Sun Pharma , Cipla and Biocon to outperform . Also lookout for IT stocks which can fetch you good returns this year .
Wish you all the best . Happy Investing
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