We Forecast .Markets Decide ..

I am going long Nifty Futures for a target of 6480 ... stop loss at 6200

May the Best and Brightest be yours this season . MERRY CHRISTMAS Nifty closed inside 6300 . There will be some action tomorrow due to expiry . There is a possibility for a close above 6300 on global cues . S&P and Nikkei closed at all time high on strong data from the US . Nifty still within 6000-6300 , a break above 6300 will take Nifty to 6500 . I am refraining from any trading activity if its  still trading in the same range . US markets closed for Christmas , Volumes very light on holiday season I can see on the currencies as well . Calendar for my Outlook for 2014 - Do visit my blog 27th Dec : Indian Incorporation , Nifty and Sensex ..will it shine ? 28th Dec : Currencies : USD,EUR,GBP,JPY,AUD,CAD,NZD ... who's the best ? 29th Dec : Commodities : Gold ,Silver , Oil...will it reign again ? 30th Dec : US and Eurozone : Are they improving . Strategy No change in Sell Nifty Jan Series. No change in Sell Bank Nifty jan series No change in long $Us...

Nifty rallied towards 6300 mark , faced tough resistance near that level and closed some points ahead of yesterdays close . As explained earlier in case it manages to cross over 6300 anytime this week we can see the Nifty at 6450 mark . I don't see much upside as volumes remain light with not much active participation . Till then it will continue to remain range bound between 6300 and 5900 levels till end of this year . I would not like to trade anything this week but will continue to watch the Nifty above 6300 . I am still holding to my Sell Call Nifty and Bank Nifty Strategy which is in the money and will look to close when market re opens for trading in the New Year . My friends would like to hear from me the outlook for 2014 which I will post from Dec 28th onwards . I will be covering topics like Indian markets , US equities , Asian Markets , Euro Zone and Aussie/Kiwi markets . My view on currencies , Commodities and Bullion as well . S&P rose to 1827 from the news th...

Nifty made impressive gains by rising 100+ points closing towards 6300. As most of the traders are in a holiday mood volumes will be thin from this week onwards globally as well as Indian markets . I was surprised on the +ve  gains on Nifty and in case it closes above 6300 we can see markets moving towards 6500 , else we will be in a range from 6000 - 6300 . Next week will be expiry and then we go into the new year , No specific major data this week on Indian markets . 2014 will see Q3 earnings coming in and then politics will be the headliner as EC has given a statement that the new government has to form before June 2014 . US GDP climbed at its strongest since 2011 . S&P rose to its highest level . I will look to close my short S&P on Monday opening and will be looking to short again as I still see a downside in the short term . With economy improving my biggest trade will be the dollar in 2014 . No major key announcements ,coming up next week is CAD GDP data , US Dur...

In a surprise move Mr. Rajan kept rates steady in spite of high inflation . He will rather wait for more data coming in next month before taking any decision . Inflation is still his top priority followed by growth to keep India on track . Then came the Fed decision to start curtailing easy money in the system which was not what analyst's thought . Nifty erased all those gains and closed in Red today . Nifty has still not broken the 6000 mark hence my strategy is to sell Calls at higher levels . Both my sell calls on Nifty and Bank Nifty are in the money and I will remain to hold till December Expiry . Short Term view on the markets is bearish and in case it breaks 6000 it can drift to 5800 mark fro Nifty . Bank Nifty was the biggest loser and may go to 10800 levels . Fed announced a $10B reduction in its buying program from Jan 2014 . It means that there is a confidence growing in US economy and will pick up steam in 2014 . Dollar was marginally stronger after the release as tr...

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Fed reduces stimulas I am selling Bank Nifty Call Strike 12000 @154 Jan series and Selling $NzdUSd  @.8186

Nifty was range bound through  the day . Analysts expect RBI may hike rates tomorrow as Inflation reached all time high . This will make borrowing expensive to cool down demand and soften prices . I am still holding Nifty Sell Calls , I was observing the Bank Nifty to write some puts but called off my decision on the last moment . I will wait until Wednesday evening to take some trades . Nifty has a support of 6000 and 11200 for Bank Nifty. S&P was weak on opening . Data showed Inflation was unchanged in US at 2 percent which is what Fed wants Overall increase in payrolls , manufacturing and housing sector all adding to the probability that economy is increasing and Fed should consider to reduce stimulus in a smaller proportion . Lot of money at stake tomorrow so lets see the action . I am happy to see my short S&P in the money and will continue to hold for a target of 1700 . Strategy No change in Sell Nifty Jan Series No change in long $UsdChf . No change in ...

Nifty was range bound today mostly on the lower side . WPI inflation increased to 7.52 % which is not a good sign , with Retail inflation also at peak RBI has no other choice but to increase rates to tame inflation . Nifty will remain range bound and will decide on direction by end of this week , taking cues from RBI policy and FED meet . As mentioned 6000 is a very strong support and my views are mostly on the downside . I may take a long Bank Nifty position or write Puts if prices are favorable tomorrow . Europe and US reported a jump in manufacturing activity led by Germany . US also reported an increase in industrial production and thus adding to the chances that Fed may start reducing this month . Coming to currencies dollar was trading flat among its peers with no clear direction . I am closely watching $GbpAud on a sell side . Gold fell last week but recovered today  , now trading at $1246 . I am bearish in the short term and will start accumulating around 1200 -119...

I am closing my half short $GbpUsd @1.6302 and let remaining ride or hit stop loss .  

All of them wait for the FED decision ....reduce bond buying or delay it ????? Markets have been up since 2009 when US started pumping money into the system . It has now reached a finale which will decide market direction . Overall Macro data is supporting a chance for tapering which I think it should start in small way and set the ball rolling . S&P closed below 1800 mark last week due to profit booking and signs of nervousness on tapering . India has another challenge on WPI inflation and RBI policy , In case Inflation is up Mr. Governor has no other choice but to increase rates in this meeting . India is still not able to tame this monster and I expect to continue till March 2014 after which it will slow down . I am negative on Indian markets as macro-economic data not supporting such levels on the Nifty .   I have only 1 position open on Nifty which is Sell call at  6500 levels . I am short half position on S&P and long dollar against Franc/Pound . I would n...

Nifty fell last week after hitting all time high . I had forecasted that there will be a profit booking at that level and will correct to decide again . Actually I think it may fall further ...I have still not taken a call as  its still near a support level . successive closing below 6000 may spark a riot again testing 5700 in the near term . I have closed my Bank Nifty sell calls in profit . I have a sell call on Nifty for Jan series which is in the money . Industrial output fell and Retail inflation shot up to all time high which is not a good sign for the Indian Economy . Coming up next week FPMC meeting , WPI data and  RBI policy on Dec 17-18 . I will be watching the Nifty at 6000 . It may stop or it will go down again . S&P closed at 1775 which is a good drop from last week . It has closed below 1800 level and I expect to close blow this level for another week to accelerate declines .  I am still holding short S&P which is in the money . US markets have ...

I am closing my Sell Bank Nifty 2 Lots @268 in Profit . Nifty down for the last 4 sessions . Will update with market round up in the evening

I am closing my Sell Nifty 6300 Call @78 in Profit I am opening Sell Nifty 6550 Call @72 - January Series

Nifty corrected again , reached session low and settled around 6300 .  It may now move up or down taking Cues from CPI inflation Data , Fed Meet and RBI Policy . I am looking on the downside as I expect no change in CPI numbers and actually contraction in Manufacturing activity . There is a possibility for the Nifty to remain range bound this week and there is mot likely chance on the downside . There is a strong support at 6100 . I have refrained from taking any trades today and will look through again on tomorrows closing . Nifty may open low in the morning on weak global cues today . US Stocks were weak and I see a resistance around 1800 [was trading at 1793 during this post]. I see a drop of at least 100 points in case its closes below 1780 at close . I was also hoping for the dollar to be stronger in line with equities as FED has a 50-50 chance to reduce stimulus from this month onwards . I am still holding my strong dollar positions as I see Us economy improving and all ...

Nifty fell today as political euphoria slowly diminishing , you cannot take the markets more higher on sentiments , there should be strong macro data to push the markets higher. Biggest loser were the power stocks like NTPC, Tata Power , Power Grid which fell on new CERC norms which may make power cheaper . Adding to inflation will be todays decision to hike the commission to dealers on LPG . The price is now raised to INR 3.46 per cylinder . As mentioned earlier profit booking was expected and hence I took a decision to exit my longs . I have still not taken a decision on Sell Nifty and Bank Nifty calls as they are currently in negative . I will look tomorrow again to take a position in Nifty and Bank Nifty . I see a support of 6100 on the Nifty and 11700 on Bank Nifty . S&P retreated after being very close to all time high , many analysts have now polled that Fed may take a decision to reduce bond buying in next week meeting . With all the good news on Payrolls , Retail and ...

Indian markets reached an all time high [as expected and mentioned in my previous post] . It touched at 6415 and was at 6393 at close . Most of the Nifty and Bank Nifty stocks were in green .Major gainers were L&T , ICICI and ONGC .   There is lot of Profit Booking at this stage and I don't see any steam left in the Nifty to surge again . It has to fall now for the next upsurge . I remain sidelined as of now for the Nifty . My Sell call Nifty is under pressure and same lies with Bank Nifty Sell call for which I will take a decision tomorrow . Traders will now watch for the next key event mainly FOMC meet and its decision to scale down stimulus . US stocks unchanged in opening today , Asian stocks were in green on news that Chinese exports grew in November . Japan also registered slow growth last quarter than estimated and its deficit is slowly going out of control . Meanwhile reports suggested that lawmakers are nearing a deal to cut down on spending before D...