We Forecast .Markets Decide ..

I am selling HDFC Bank Put 640 @4.8 I am selling HDFC Bank Call 700 @3.1

Nifty rallied near 6300 mark and very positive to go further again . Global cues also positive and hence the party will continue today , also the start of the month there is lot of volatility and new expiry series for derivative segment . My Sell Sun Pharma position closed in profit but my HDFC bank position ended in a loss . I didn't close my position till expiry since I thought I will take another shot again this month . Will keep you posted on my next strategy . Housing data was mixed in US as new home sales increased but mortgage applications decreased to lowest levels than last year . S&P was flat and it didn't close near all time high levels since Monday , I will be bearish only if it closes below 1830 on a daily close , but I don't want to buy either . Fed chair Yellen will be speaking today on monetary policy and if to maintain the pace of stimulus cuts which has started from last 2 months . We saw a good move on the dollar of housing data and I have closed ...

Nifty made a march towards 6200 closing at that level , I think it is still nervous and will hesitate to go beyond that level in the short term . I am still sticking to my strategy that it will be range bound within 6400 and 5800 till election results play out . I am completely negative in my Sell HDFC Bank Sell call strategy and will decide only on expiry day  , my other sell call in Sun Pharma is in the money and looks like will expire positively . I expect the Nifty to close below 6200 on expiry . I will look to sell Puts on Nifty in the next month around 6000 levels . US data mixed with housing data short of expectations and consumer confidence not encouraging . S&P touched all time high and has since come back around 1840 levels . I am looking to short at these levels and will update only when I see a good opportunity . Coming to currencies most of the currencies not showing clear direction , I have closed my sell $UsdCad posit...

I am closing my $UsdCad short @ 1.1090 . All other fx positions unchanged

Nifty still inside the range , it managed to close above 6100 but could stay there for 2-3 days . Hence I am still undecided on the direction of the Nifty . I am bearish currently and expect a fall towards 6000 levels . I was about to take a call on closing my Sell call strategy of HDFC Bank but will again wait for a day or till expiry which will happen this week . For the last few weeks we have seen the nifty trading in 6000 - 6300 range and will continue to do so till April 2014 . Stocks to watch today will be utility companies like Tata Power on CERC order to hike power tariff . G20 nations agreed to boost global growth over 5 years , they will come up with strategies and policies which will help top 20 nations to achieve targeted growth . US and Euro stocks ended mixed this week but more on the downside . There was a clear resistance on S&P and it may retreat back to 1750 levels . Not so impressive data coming out from Euro nations and US last week as currencies too were ran...

I am going short on $ UsdCad for a target of 100 pips .

I am closing my $NzdUsd position @.8276 Opening short $EurUsd @1.3701

Nifty closed above 6100 again and will be bullish if weekly close is above this level  . This looks unlikely as global stocks have retreated after FED confirmed that it will continue to reduce stimulus in a phased manner . I am still holding my Sell call positions on HDFC Bank and Sun Pharma and will take a call on todays close . Stocks in action will be Ranbaxy which settled ant trust probe while Tata Group was counted as most valuable brand in Global 500 Top Brand list and Renuka Sugar as it may announce its stake sale today . US stocks dropped after FED stated that it will continue to taper and monitor economic data for the next few months to maintain growth for this year . Asian stocks followed and are red on Asia open . Dollar gained across the board except the Yen and Franc on the news . I am happy to see my short $NzdUsd in the money and will look to close by end of day today . Major news was Facebook has agreed to buy WhatsApp for $16 billion targeting more mobile...

Nifty closed above 6100 after a long time indicating bullishness , I would rather wait for few more days to close above this level to take a call . Bank Nifty rose and my sell Call strategy on HDFC Bank is now in jeopardy , I will wait for todays close and then take a stand on my next move .  As a trader one should always remember that in case of loss he should immediately come out of the position or take counter strategy move to offset losses . Finance Minister is very optimistic to bring down fiscal deficit in the current financial year and improve growth . US stocks extended their gains and are now very close near all time high levels . I will be short at around 1820 levels till then I remain sidelined . Key events today are US housing data and China manufacturing which will decide the currency market direction . I am still holding $NzdUsd short which has now in green and I expect it fall around .8800 levels in near future . I am looking to sell Pound as it looks s...

Nifty was flat on Mr. Finance Minister vote of account speech . Tax rates were unchanged but there was a small change in excise duties to boost auto and infrastructure . The full budget will be presented after the new government is formed in June 2014 . He is optimistic on inflation and growth for the year 2014-205 . I have taken a sell call strategy on Sun Pharma and HDFC bank as I think markets will not be bullish in near term . There is a risk as my HDFC bank sell call strategy was very close to stop out , we will wait till expiry and I hope to close out the position in profit . US markets were closed hence currency markets were range bound for the day . Asian markets were in green on opening and traders waiting for BOJ statement . Another key event to look out today is UK inflation and consumer price index data . Gold has now moved to $1323 and I think will not be able to push higher . I am looking to sell Gold around 1300 levels . Strategy No change in long $UsdChf ....

Taking some RISK here Selling calls for February Sun Pharma Strike 650 @ 1.5 HDFC bank Strike 660 @4.15

I am closing my Puts Nifty Strike 5800 @6.75 ICICI Bank Strike 880 @ 1.5

Nifty recovered and closed in positive around 6045 . I was looking to close my Nifty Puts and ICICI Bank Puts on Friday but will now close it on Monday open . WPI data cheered markets with overall inflation less than last month . Nothing much on the Railway budget with no increase in fares for freight or passenger traffic , also I don't think any thing will happen on Finance budget to be presented this month . Bad earnings from SBI , Thomas Cook , Cipla and Hindalco sent their prices down , again as mentioned in previous post not so encouraging data from this earnings season as it comes to and end . Macro indicators still not impressive - industrial activity down , slightly better inflation data and arise in exports with narrowing fiscal deficit . Coming up this week is Vote of account by Mr. Finance minster , speaking on policy changes and fiscal deficit . US markets were up with S&P closing around 1840 , I am looking to short once again at that level and will see on Tuesda...

Nifty tanked downwards  on bad IIP numbers below 6000 . Industrial output was down for the third straight month and on news that that RBI may hike interest rates again . Manufacturing eased in consumer goods and capital sector .Inflation data was better this time which is down for the second month in a row . I think nothing to worry much on inflation but important is to have good growth in manufacturing . Watch out today for WPI data where nifty may take cues after the release .ONGC , Hindalco and Cipla fell the most on weak earnings . Nifty to be bearish below 6000 and a close today below 6000 can take it to 5800 levels . I am looking to close my Nifty and ICICI bank Puts today during noon session . S&P was higher at 1821 and has closed in green for the last 7 days . Dollar weaker as claims for unemployment rose and bad print on retail sales than last month .Earning season for US is slightly lower than last time but I feel will not be a problem as I see industrial ...

Nifty in a range for the last 2 days , unable to close above 6100 and below 6000 . India exports increased than last month , and trade deficit under control it will be able to achieve the export target set for this year .Inflation figures coming out today and I think will be positive for the markets . Global cues also coming up good and hence I expect the mood to be buoyant . Looking to close my Nifty puts and will take a decision before market closing . Tata Steel , Tata Motors ,Dr Reddys and Fortis reported good results and looking at overall results Q3 numbers not as impressive than last quarter . I expect markets to remain range bound from 6400 to 5800 in the medium term till June 14 . Watch for a strong opening today and to close in positive . S&P rose above 1800 as lawmakers agreed for extended US borrowing . Yellen in her first public remarks assured that stimulus cut will go on as planned , and will also closely watch on unemployment and economic growth . They will now l...

I am going short $NzdUsd @.8306

Nifty gained towards 6100 , it may face resistance around 6200 levels . I will look to close my sell puts by end of todays session . Markets will look on IIP numbers and inflation data releasing this week . I expect markets to be bullish this week and will stay around 6200 levels . Key earnings to look out this week are SBI,DLF,Coal India , Tata Motors , NMDC , Hindalco and Sun Pharma . Another data released pointed out that Emerging economies growth slowed to lowest than last quarter except for India , Taiwan and Mexico . S&P made a smart recovery and I feel will face some resistance here . There is a good opportunity to go short around 1800 . There was a disappointment on US NFP release where jobs contracted than last month , only positive news that unemployment fell to 6.6 percent which is close to Fed mark to further cut down on stimulus . US dollar dropped sharply but recovered by end of the day . I had closed my buy $EurUsd position well before the release . I am looking to...

I am closing my long $EurUsd @1.3591 in profit . Will trade on Monday as will be looking at NFP release today

Nifty closed in positive and Asian markets were in green on open . I expect this rally to continue this week with 6200 target for the Nifty . All depends on US payrolls data which will decide further action on stocks globally . Bad day on earnings as BHEL , Glaxo ,Timken , Ranbaxy all of them reported drop in net profits, important numbers to watch out today is ACC and Ambuja Cements . No change in my sell puts for ICICI and Nifty . Aussie was bullish as Australia reported improved retail sales and trade surplus . Key events to watch today are Eur/Gbp rate decision . It will be bullish for both the currency pairs if they keep rates unchanged and no change in policy . S&P is flat and facing a resistance at 1740 levels , break below will take it down to 1700 . For a long time we have not discussed on AU , Gold is facing a resistance at 1270 and I expect to go down again at 1200 levels . Looking to sell $NzdUsd again higher Strategy No change in long $UsdChf . No change in l...

Nifty made a bounce from a low of 5950 to close near main support level of 6000 . I have taken a sell put call on Nifty as well as ICICI Bank and will look to close in another 2 weeks . This relief rally will be there for another 2-3 weeks after which it will again try to break 6000 levels . There is a important event this Friday on employment data which may decide course of Nifty. Divi Labs , Tech Mahindra were stocks of the day with inline results . Earnings season not so spectacular this time as of now so lets see how it progresses next 2 weeks . S&P was flat , there was a rebound but its back to square one at Asian open . I was looking to sell Aussie after the rate decision but the price didn't work out and hence will wait to execute again . I took a short on UsdCad yesterday and closed for a small profit as I found lots of resistance on that level . I am looking to sell $NzdUsd today if it meets my price . S&P may see a bounce followed by EM economies in the short ...

I am closing my short $UsdCad @1.1065 as I see some strong resistance at this level

I have taken sell puts on Nifty and ICICI Bank I have also sold $UsdCad1.1086

Nifty was down by 87 points on yesterdays close . It is near its support level and any close below 6000 for the next 2-3 days may take it down to 5800 levels . I expect the Nifty to bounce back soon as it is in red for the last 7 days , there will be a weak opening today and traders may look to buy around 5950 levels with a strict stop loss of 5900 on the Nifty . Asian stocks were down in the morning on global cues as manufacturing shrunk in US . Lupin posted good results while it was a bad day for Tata Chem, Gillete , Vijaya Bank and Jaypee Infratech . S&P was down and has posted the worst losses since Jan 2014 . I see S&P till 1700 in the short term . US manufacturing was low in Jan as activity slowed down more than expected . This affected the dollar and was weak throughout day with Yen gaining the most . I will look to sell Aussie after its rate decision as I see some weakness on the charts. Strategy No change in long $UsdChf .  

Nifty ended at 6089 down than last week , I anticipate some more weakness towards 6000 - 5900 levels . Globally investors will refrain from buying Indian equities until May - June 2014 as they are skeptical about the new government . We will see a flat movement between 5800 - 6500 levels until then hence best strategy would be to buy when it comes near to the support zone and sell at resistance level . Asia stocks were weak on opening with China manufacturing data lower than expected . Berger Paints , Sobha , Godrej  delivered as per expectations but was surprised to see Grasim and Merck reporting slump in profits . Overall this earning season is not as expected than last quarter . S&P pointing lower in Asian open , it suffered the most fall for a month . With US economy improving we may see it correct to 1700 levels before we see the next surge. Dollar was strong last week and we may see some correction before NFP data is out this Friday . I made a decen...